Exotic species risk modelling

• The problem
• Introduction to risk modelling
• Opportunities for spatially explicit risk assessments
• Canadian example applications: European larch canker
• Canadian example applications: Scleroderris
• Canadian example applications: Dung beetle
• Conclusions, acknowledgement and references

---

Conclusions, acknowledgement and references

Conclusions

The analyses presented here were intended to illustrate some opportunities but also limitations and areas for future efforts. There are no panaceas. Risk assessments should assist in the design of detection and monitoring strategies and include predictions of possible distributions, physical effects (e.g., timber losses) and ideally possible economic costs. Such systems should also be generic in the sense that they can be rapidly applied to emerging issues like the longhorned beetle and ideally be capable of predicting range changes in a changing global climate. It is important to note that there are many examples of species that thrive outside their native climate. This cannot be easily anticipated hence there is no substitute for well-designed monitoring programs. Modeling efforts and field data collections must be integrated to be most effective.

Acknowledgement

We thank Dr. Bob Footitt and Dr. Andy Bootsma both of Agriculture Canada for their assistance through other collaborative projects.

References

The language of each report is indicated here by the title.

Hutchinson, M.F. 1998. Interpolation of rainfall data with thin plate smoothing splines: II analysis of topographic dependence. J. of Geographic Information and Decision Analysis 2 (2): 168-185.

Lindenmayer, D.B.; Mackey, B.G.; Nix, H.A. 1996. The bioclimatic domains of four species of commercially important eucalypts from south-eastern Australia. Australian Forestry 59:74-89.

Venier, L.A.; Hopkin, A.A.; McKenney, D.W.; Wang, Y. 1998. A spatial climate-determined risk rating for Scleroderris disease of pines in Ontario. Can. J. For. Res. 28: 1398-1404.

---