Exotic species risk modelling

• The problem
• Introduction to risk modelling
• Opportunities for spatially explicit risk assessments
• Canadian example applications: European larch canker
• Canadian example applications: Scleroderris
• Canadian example applications: Dung beetle
• Conclusions, acknowledgement and references

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Canadian example applications: European larch canker

The fungus was first detected in eastern Canada in 1980, and is currently found only in southern New Brunswick and mainland Nova Scotia. This fungus is capable of causing cankers on twigs, branches or the main stems primarily of tamarack (Larix laricina [Du Roi] K. Koch), although all species of the larch (Larix) genus are susceptible. In parts of Europe this disease has eliminated European larch as an option for plantations. 

Current climatic range

The predicted climatic range of the European larch canker in Canada is shown. Location data from 1980-1997 of occurrences of European larch canker in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia were used to produce the map. The image confirms the notion that the disease is restricted to a maritime climate. No other parts of the country match this climatic profile. This suggests other parts of the range of larch are at minimal risk. The map should not be interpreted as indicating that all areas within the climatic range of the canker contain the disease, only that it is climatically suitable. The intersection of the predicted climatic range with the national forest inventory suggests that roughly 6 million cubic meters of tamarack exists within this zone and thus may be at risk if mortality was extensive and complete.

Predicted climate range

The national forest inventory is both coarse and only indicative of species and volumes present and hence must be interpreted with caution.

Predicted climatic distribution for the years of 2010-2039

The predicted climatic distribution of the canker for the period 2010/39 using a future climate scenario is shown. Interestingly it suggests that the climatic domain for European larch canker may decline over time but may spread to part of Newfoundland. We note that this is only one scenario and should be interpreted with caution.

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