High-resolution maps of climate and climate change

Description

We have developed a suite of 12 high-resolution climate scenarios for Canada and the continental United States. Each scenario provides monthly values for six climate variables (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, humidity, and wind speed) for the period 2001 to 2100. These data result from 12 simulations run with four different well-established global climate models (GCM), each run with three different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas forcing scenarios (the SRES A2, A1B and B1). The results were interpolated spatially using ANUSPLIN software. A comprehensive analysis of the data covering Canada will be published in a CFS information report. As an integral part of this project, CFS was also contracted by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service in 2008 to provide a suite of interpolated GCM scenarios covering the continental United States and Alaska for use in assessing climate change effects in the US Resources Planning Act 2010 Assessment.

This graphic shows the results for four different GCMs under the IPCC SRES A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, showing projected increases in annual mean daily minimum temperature (left) and changes in annual total precipitation (right) for the 2001–2100 period, relative to 1961–1990.

Results for four different GCMs under the IPCC SRES A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, showing projected increases in annual mean daily minimum temperature (left) and changes in annual total precipitation (right) for the 2001–2100 period, relative to 1961–1990.

Projected trends in annual mean daily minimum temperature according to the ensemble averages of four global climate models, under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B, and B1 GHG emissions scenarios. Solid lines are 10-year moving means; shaded areas in corresponding colors are ±1 standard deviation of the mean.

Projected trends in annual mean daily minimum temperature according to the ensemble averages of four global climate models, under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B, and B1 GHG emissions scenarios. Solid lines are 10-year moving means; shaded areas in corresponding colors are ±1 standard deviation of the mean.

Deliverables

  • Suite of 12 high-resolution climate scenarios for Canada and for Alaska and the continental United States for use in the US Resources Planning Act (RPA) 2010 Assessment

Links to more information

Publications

Price, D.T.; McKenney, D.W.; Joyce, L.A.; Siltanen, R.M.; Papadopol, P.; Lawrence, K. 2011. High-resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for Canada derived from general circulation model simulations. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Alberta. Information Report NOR-X-421. 126 pages. The USA version of this report is available on this site and is also available through this link to the USDA: .

Joyce, L.A.; Price, D.T.; McKenney, D.W.; Siltanen, R.M.; Papadopol, P.; Lawrence, K.; Coulson, D.P. 2011. High-resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for the continental USA and Alaska derived from General Circulation Model simulations. Rocky Mt. Res. Stn. Gen. Tech. Rep. 263. US Dep. Agric., For. Serv., Rocky Mt. Res. Stn., Ft. Collins, CO. 87 p. [PDF]

Collaborator/Partner

USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ft. Collins, CO

Project status

  • Completed

Team members